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21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-d1b4823894e14c65b471615f74146ee8","title":"全讲收束：你的“新样本”究竟新在哪里？","number":2},"sectionTitle":"全讲收束：你的“新样本”究竟新在哪里？","currentQuestion":"全讲收束：你的“新样本”究竟新在哪里？","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":"b-5632efd5acd97adf98c792f5","nextBlock":"b-533cdb42dbb85cb29de8bf08","prerequisites":[{"id":"b-3303e7c3e48c25deee06b6c3","url":"#b-3303e7c3e48c25deee06b6c3","role":"section-title"},{"id":"b-6771f14abec7706533073ecf","url":"#b-6771f14abec7706533073ecf","role":"problem-context"}],"relatedBlocks":[]},{"id":"b-533cdb42dbb85cb29de8bf08","type":"p","scope":"block-d1b4823894e14c65b471615f74146ee8","url":"https://codingai-lec03.pages.dev/course/lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统.html#b-533cdb42dbb85cb29de8bf08","content":"读完只需留下一个自己的具体问题：未来预测对象、新样本相对训练的变化、必须整组留出的单位、一个简单基线，以及能推翻当前解释的干预。先把本例批次偏置标准差3改成0提出预测，再考虑是否运行。原代码和2026-09-22保存输出保留。","sha256":"d826ab1040a9741d94bd43c6331c3e949fa8645b069c8e3b1829220250fb620b","chapter":{"id":"course","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-d1b4823894e14c65b471615f74146ee8","title":"全讲收束：你的“新样本”究竟新在哪里？","number":2},"sectionTitle":"全讲收束：你的“新样本”究竟新在哪里？","currentQuestion":"全讲收束：你的“新样本”究竟新在哪里？","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":"b-4b7231ce8e352fb4237a9791","nextBlock":"b-fafd5d90cd220c498b05d71e","prerequisites":[{"id":"b-3303e7c3e48c25deee06b6c3","url":"#b-3303e7c3e48c25deee06b6c3","role":"section-title"},{"id":"b-6771f14abec7706533073ecf","url":"#b-6771f14abec7706533073ecf","role":"problem-context"}],"relatedBlocks":[]},{"id":"b-fafd5d90cd220c498b05d71e","type":"p","scope":"block-d1b4823894e14c65b471615f74146ee8","url":"https://codingai-lec03.pages.dev/course/lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统.html#b-fafd5d90cd220c498b05d71e","content":"这册不收纳其他主题的剩余材料。它的终点是形成可检验的评价设计；具体模型与训练继续回到所选的LAB01/02、LAB10、LAB13或LAB14。","sha256":"68aa3e55e3c12b62812bb38fd30207255a14ad6ac45328410b86bdc4ebd13a14","chapter":{"id":"course","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-d1b4823894e14c65b471615f74146ee8","title":"全讲收束：你的“新样本”究竟新在哪里？","number":2},"sectionTitle":"全讲收束：你的“新样本”究竟新在哪里？","currentQuestion":"全讲收束：你的“新样本”究竟新在哪里？","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":"b-533cdb42dbb85cb29de8bf08","nextBlock":"b-a6be1c4bf56451da634021e2","prerequisites":[{"id":"b-3303e7c3e48c25deee06b6c3","url":"#b-3303e7c3e48c25deee06b6c3","role":"section-title"},{"id":"b-6771f14abec7706533073ecf","url":"#b-6771f14abec7706533073ecf","role":"problem-context"}],"relatedBlocks":[]},{"id":"b-a6be1c4bf56451da634021e2","type":"pre","scope":"block-40cd76c6ca1443379cf6e888f570823a","url":"https://codingai-lec03.pages.dev/course/lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统.html#b-a6be1c4bf56451da634021e2","content":"```\n# Writable ephemeral workspace for detached readonly cloud runs.\nimport os, tempfile\nos.chdir(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix='lec03_lab24_'))\n\nimport numpy as np\nr=np.random.default_rng(24); groups=np.repeat(np.arange(12),20); x=r.normal(size=len(groups)); offsets=r.normal(0,3,12); y=.7*x+offsets[groups]+r.normal(0,.25,len(x))\nrandom_test=np.zeros(len(x),bool); random_test[r.permutation(len(x))[:60]]=True\ngroup_test=groups>=9\ndef compare(test):\n    train=~test; means={g:y[train&(groups==g)].mean() for g in np.unique(groups[train])}\n    memorized=np.array([means.get(g,y[train].mean()) for g in groups[test]])\n    X=np.c_[x,np.ones(len(x))]; w=np.linalg.lstsq(X[train],y[train],rcond=None)[0]\n    rmse=lambda p:float(np.sqrt(np.mean((p-y[test])**2)))\n    return {'ntrain':int(train.sum()),'ntest':int(test.sum()),'overlapping_groups':len(set(groups[train])&set(groups[test])),'batch_mean_RMSE':rmse(memorized),'x_only_RMSE':rmse(X[test]@w)}\nprint('random sample split',compare(random_test)); print('new batch split',compare(group_test))\nassert compare(group_test)['overlapping_groups']==0\nprint('claim tested: does low random-split error predict performance in unseen acquisition groups?')\n```","sha256":"d8a3a5c9264688702b427dcc23aa1d7ab143436d75ce9c4ee4a73e1353d133f2","chapter":{"id":"course","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-d1b4823894e14c65b471615f74146ee8","title":"全讲收束：你的“新样本”究竟新在哪里？","number":2},"sectionTitle":"全讲收束：你的“新样本”究竟新在哪里？","currentQuestion":"全讲收束：你的“新样本”究竟新在哪里？","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":"b-fafd5d90cd220c498b05d71e","nextBlock":null,"prerequisites":[{"id":"b-3303e7c3e48c25deee06b6c3","url":"#b-3303e7c3e48c25deee06b6c3","role":"section-title"},{"id":"b-6771f14abec7706533073ecf","url":"#b-6771f14abec7706533073ecf","role":"problem-context"}],"relatedBlocks":[]},{"id":"b-7fbc8cbf31d673841f322e88","type":"h2","scope":"block-2808d2d9691f4492a32d74b6ab87a431","url":"https://codingai-lec03.pages.dev/course/lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统.html#b-7fbc8cbf31d673841f322e88","content":"## 已完成的基准运行","sha256":"70efe3096d536ddf0d6f0f7335815da85d73017a47a0e52cac5d2621805a3c53","chapter":{"id":"course","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-2808d2d9691f4492a32d74b6ab87a431","title":"已完成的基准运行","number":3},"sectionTitle":"已完成的基准运行","currentQuestion":"已完成的基准运行","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":null,"nextBlock":"b-b1efb79812e059e4bc3d403a","prerequisites":[{"id":"b-b1efb79812e059e4bc3d403a","url":"#b-b1efb79812e059e4bc3d403a","role":"problem-context"}],"relatedBlocks":[]},{"id":"b-b1efb79812e059e4bc3d403a","type":"p","scope":"block-2808d2d9691f4492a32d74b6ab87a431","url":"https://codingai-lec03.pages.dev/course/lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统.html#b-b1efb79812e059e4bc3d403a","content":"以下保留2026-09-22本地独立 Python 进程的实际标准输出。当前整理没有重跑；Notebook 的云端执行记录与这份本地标准输出分开解释。","sha256":"74b1002921cba22fc89835fb6b097d947e130308314ca16a5926cd5568a6c6a0","chapter":{"id":"course","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-2808d2d9691f4492a32d74b6ab87a431","title":"已完成的基准运行","number":3},"sectionTitle":"已完成的基准运行","currentQuestion":"已完成的基准运行","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":"b-7fbc8cbf31d673841f322e88","nextBlock":"b-68f76059bbc6452dd945d7ea","prerequisites":[{"id":"b-7fbc8cbf31d673841f322e88","url":"#b-7fbc8cbf31d673841f322e88","role":"section-title"}],"relatedBlocks":[]},{"id":"b-68f76059bbc6452dd945d7ea","type":"pre","scope":"block-2808d2d9691f4492a32d74b6ab87a431","url":"https://codingai-lec03.pages.dev/course/lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统.html#b-68f76059bbc6452dd945d7ea","content":"```\nrandom sample split {'ntrain': 180, 'ntest': 60, 'overlapping_groups': 12, 'batch_mean_RMSE': 0.7821631194429031, 'x_only_RMSE': 2.3574347161692795}\nnew batch split {'ntrain': 180, 'ntest': 60, 'overlapping_groups': 0, 'batch_mean_RMSE': 2.115187164028426, 'x_only_RMSE': 1.798035324219997}\nclaim tested: does low random-split error predict performance in unseen acquisition groups?\n\n```","sha256":"42124848ccd8b92f5f1cfff56738e13d724914540fef9149ada772fa6f73a411","chapter":{"id":"course","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-2808d2d9691f4492a32d74b6ab87a431","title":"已完成的基准运行","number":3},"sectionTitle":"已完成的基准运行","currentQuestion":"已完成的基准运行","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":"b-b1efb79812e059e4bc3d403a","nextBlock":"b-fb05b07b83dde997cd586ec0","prerequisites":[{"id":"b-7fbc8cbf31d673841f322e88","url":"#b-7fbc8cbf31d673841f322e88","role":"section-title"},{"id":"b-b1efb79812e059e4bc3d403a","url":"#b-b1efb79812e059e4bc3d403a","role":"problem-context"}],"relatedBlocks":[]},{"id":"b-fb05b07b83dde997cd586ec0","type":"p","scope":"block-2808d2d9691f4492a32d74b6ab87a431","url":"https://codingai-lec03.pages.dev/course/lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统.html#b-fb05b07b83dde997cd586ec0","content":"先比较组重叠，再解释RMSE。随机划分中“批次均值”可能很好，是因为测试批次在训练中已出现；新批次的默认均值通常失效。x基线也未必足够好，因为目标仍含未知偏置。不能因此宣布x无用，也不能仅换复杂网络就假定问题解决。","sha256":"d946bf0599c4437cdc6d82e8d33de4d1c61adb0bd5c88ac00fbce95e4fe280e3","chapter":{"id":"course","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-2808d2d9691f4492a32d74b6ab87a431","title":"已完成的基准运行","number":3},"sectionTitle":"已完成的基准运行","currentQuestion":"已完成的基准运行","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":"b-68f76059bbc6452dd945d7ea","nextBlock":"b-d20ab69b8d26cfbd757a8d74","prerequisites":[{"id":"b-7fbc8cbf31d673841f322e88","url":"#b-7fbc8cbf31d673841f322e88","role":"section-title"},{"id":"b-b1efb79812e059e4bc3d403a","url":"#b-b1efb79812e059e4bc3d403a","role":"problem-context"}],"relatedBlocks":[]},{"id":"b-d20ab69b8d26cfbd757a8d74","type":"p","scope":"block-2808d2d9691f4492a32d74b6ab87a431","url":"https://codingai-lec03.pages.dev/course/lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统.html#b-d20ab69b8d26cfbd757a8d74","content":"把自己的研究改写为一个具体契约：预测时真正可取得哪些输入？新样本指新个体、新地点还是新时间？最简单而强的基线是什么？哪个分组必须整体留出？只有先固定这些问题，LAB01的冻结读出、LAB02的微调、LAB10的定位或LAB13的条件生成才有可比较的含义。下一步仅把偏置标准差3改成0，检验划分差距是否缩小；这是能改变本例解释的反证。不要将这组构造数据的单次RMSE推广为现实效应大小。","sha256":"bb0108d603afce1835c02befacbeabdc04bfaf27963a327c171e9075f8e3c85d","chapter":{"id":"course","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-2808d2d9691f4492a32d74b6ab87a431","title":"已完成的基准运行","number":3},"sectionTitle":"已完成的基准运行","currentQuestion":"已完成的基准运行","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":"b-fb05b07b83dde997cd586ec0","nextBlock":null,"prerequisites":[{"id":"b-7fbc8cbf31d673841f322e88","url":"#b-7fbc8cbf31d673841f322e88","role":"section-title"},{"id":"b-b1efb79812e059e4bc3d403a","url":"#b-b1efb79812e059e4bc3d403a","role":"problem-context"}],"relatedBlocks":[]},{"id":"b-b120d82583b488cb21eeb2f7","type":"h2","scope":"block-40cb21de62644787b549a881181299e0","url":"https://codingai-lec03.pages.dev/course/lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统.html#b-b120d82583b488cb21eeb2f7","content":"## 旧版热身（历史参考）","sha256":"22776016622c2addaf705c770c88971c82973c938ae33e183a9feb3b49e49de1","chapter":{"id":"course","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-40cb21de62644787b549a881181299e0","title":"旧版热身（历史参考）","number":4},"sectionTitle":"旧版热身（历史参考）","currentQuestion":"旧版热身（历史参考）","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":null,"nextBlock":"b-a50368f355f7d17997e4af45","prerequisites":[{"id":"b-a50368f355f7d17997e4af45","url":"#b-a50368f355f7d17997e4af45","role":"problem-context"}],"relatedBlocks":[]},{"id":"b-a50368f355f7d17997e4af45","type":"p","scope":"block-40cb21de62644787b549a881181299e0","url":"https://codingai-lec03.pages.dev/course/lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统.html#b-a50368f355f7d17997e4af45","content":"旧版热身仅保留为历史参考，不参与当前基准运行；当前解释与计算以上方完整实验为准。","sha256":"e5c542ac9eaa3e8830cbf8ff2616dedc089473c3d44be23349ecd3d049b6d0f9","chapter":{"id":"course","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-40cb21de62644787b549a881181299e0","title":"旧版热身（历史参考）","number":4},"sectionTitle":"旧版热身（历史参考）","currentQuestion":"旧版热身（历史参考）","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":"b-b120d82583b488cb21eeb2f7","nextBlock":"b-e4e16ee60a449d2fa1c96ab5","prerequisites":[{"id":"b-b120d82583b488cb21eeb2f7","url":"#b-b120d82583b488cb21eeb2f7","role":"section-title"}],"relatedBlocks":[]},{"id":"b-e4e16ee60a449d2fa1c96ab5","type":"h4","scope":"block-40cb21de62644787b549a881181299e0","url":"https://codingai-lec03.pages.dev/course/lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统.html#b-e4e16ee60a449d2fa1c96ab5","content":"#### 展开查看旧版代码（仅展示，不执行）","sha256":"b5f2d755e2ad018e90a28a20600c873333e0691cce1a7f018f374a7d482cbaf3","chapter":{"id":"course","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-40cb21de62644787b549a881181299e0","title":"旧版热身（历史参考）","number":4},"sectionTitle":"旧版热身（历史参考）","currentQuestion":"旧版热身（历史参考）","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":"b-a50368f355f7d17997e4af45","nextBlock":"b-fa1b9a1d530398802d736466","prerequisites":[{"id":"b-b120d82583b488cb21eeb2f7","url":"#b-b120d82583b488cb21eeb2f7","role":"section-title"},{"id":"b-a50368f355f7d17997e4af45","url":"#b-a50368f355f7d17997e4af45","role":"problem-context"}],"relatedBlocks":[]},{"id":"b-fa1b9a1d530398802d736466","type":"pre","scope":"block-40cb21de62644787b549a881181299e0","url":"https://codingai-lec03.pages.dev/course/lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统.html#b-fa1b9a1d530398802d736466","content":"```\ncontract={'input':'one observable object','target':'one checkable output','split':'by environment','baseline':'simple deterministic rule','metric':'task metric + failure slices','counterevidence':'condition that would change the claim'}\nfor k,v in contract.items(): print(f'{k}: {v}')\nassert set(contract)=={'input','target','split','baseline','metric','counterevidence'}\n\n```","sha256":"aa7d2c30a5e0feff90b899d9479c2df4067492958eec2e3f5d02f3a9fe14cbbc","chapter":{"id":"course","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"unit":{"id":"lab24-把科研问题写成可检验系统","title":"LAB 21 · 研究收束：让划分对应新样本"},"page":{"id":"reading-block-40cb21de62644787b549a881181299e0","title":"旧版热身（历史参考）","number":4},"sectionTitle":"旧版热身（历史参考）","currentQuestion":"旧版热身（历史参考）","sourceSlides":[],"knowledgeBlock":null,"formulas":[],"previousBlock":"b-e4e16ee60a449d2fa1c96ab5","nextBlock":null,"prerequisites":[{"id":"b-e4e16ee60a449d2fa1c96ab5","url":"#b-e4e16ee60a449d2fa1c96ab5","role":"section-title"},{"id":"b-a50368f355f7d17997e4af45","url":"#b-a50368f355f7d17997e4af45","role":"problem-context"}],"relatedBlocks":[]}]}